Breaking Down How the Jaguars Could Ace The Offseason

Creativity Can Solve Almost Anything, So The Jaguars Must Be Creative

In 2022, the Jaguars became the first team in NFL history to go from finishing with the worst record in the league to winning a playoff game. Unlike their last postseason run, there should be no questions that this team is here to stay for the long haul. While Jacksonville will be favored to win their division for the foreseeable future, they'll have to set their eyes on the AFC and ultimately the Super Bowl. They've laid the foundation, but now they'll need to build on it.

This team took a massive step forward across the board, but they still face some key concerns going forward. They were built to win the division, but when they faced Kansas City they had some fatal flaws that took the edge away from them. The offensive line wasn't able to hold up on the interior against Chris Jones. The defense couldn't sack Mahomes and had no answers to stop Kelce. In many other games, they struggled to defend capable slot receivers. Now that they've conquered the AFC South, they'll need to focus on building this team to defeat the other division champions.

Forewarning, this is going to be a very long read that's going to cover a lot of ground. This goes through the entire offseason and every move I would make if I was running the Jaguars' front office. With so many elements, there could be a lot of different approaches taken but this was what I found to be best. This rundown will include cap casualties, contract restructures, trades, free agent signings, and every selection in the NFL draft as it fell. If you're looking for that kind of rundown, this is the right article for you. With that said, let's dive into it.

Offseason Cuts(-$25.1M Cap Space Available Before)

Shaquill Griffin - $13.1M

Roy Robertson-Harris - $7.8M

Kendric Pryor - $870k

Willie Johnson - $870k

De’Shaan Dixon - $870k

Snoop Conner - $700k

Facing over a $25M cap deficit heading into 2023, it’s imperative that the Jaguars are creative with their salary cap. However, even with creativity there’s going to be some casualties. When I analyze the roster, there are two players with high salaries that make sense as roster cuts, Shaquill Griffin and Roy Robertson-Harris.

Shaquill Griffin is a complete no-brainer. Griffin was arguably the worst player on the field for Jacksonville early in the season, reasons unknown, and sat out due to injury for the remainder of the season after an embarrassing loss to the Colts. Cutting him alone does half the work of getting the Jaguars under the salary cap.

The first difficult decision is what to do with Roy Robertson-Harris. As much of a leader as he is to the Jaguars, he signed on for an average salary of $8M per year and earns just over $10M this upcoming season. When you take a dive into his production and factor in the low dead cap hit he carries($2.3M of $10.1M), his contract can’t stay. With other valuable defensive linemen averaging half of that, I can’t see him taking that large of a pay cut to stay in Jacksonville. If you can get him down to $5M per year on a multi-year deal then resign him, but in this scenario that doesn’t happen.

I also included a plethora of non-impact players to free up room on the roster for some of the draft picks. Ultimately, depth players and special teamers are going to come down to preseason performances, but it’s a less important aspect of roster building compared to starters. After all of these moves are factored in, the Jaguars are less than $1M over the cap.

Contract Restructuring(-$0.9M Cap Space Available Before)

Christian Kirk - $11.2M saved in 2023, $5.6M added in 2024 and 2025

Foye Oluokun - $7M saved in 2023, $7M added in 2024

Darious Williams - $5.4M saved in 2023, $5.4M added in 2024

Jamal Agnew - $2.6M saved in 2023, $4.5M in 2024 and 2025

If the Jaguars want to bring back the majority of their free agents, they’ll need to move cap hits down the road for players they’re comfortable keeping around. For me, three guys fit that bill, those being Christian Kirk, Foye Oluokun, and Darious Williams. These guys were fantastic for the Jaguars down the road and should undoubtedly be considered foundation pieces for this roster.

I don’t believe they’ll need to exercise outs for these players, so restructuring them will free up $20.6M in cap space. That moves $15M to 2024 and $5.6M to 2025. I also have Jamal Agnew under a new extended contract that offers salary cap relief for this season. While Agnew has been an elite returner, his role as a receiver is likely to diminish heavily. I freed up $2.6M in 2023 cap space while extending him for $9M/2 years. After these restructures, the Jaguars are sitting $25.3M over the cap.

Trades($25.3M Cap Space Available Before)

K’Lavon Chaisson - $2.4M

One trade that the Jaguars should explore this offseason is sending off K’Lavon Chaisson. For as much of a disappointment as Chaisson has been, he was still a decent role player late in the season and could net a late draft pick when considering his draft pedigree. Even if the Jaguars are unable to trade him, they could still save $2.4M if he’s claimed by another team which I would consider likely. If you’re able to net those savings, you’ll have $27.7M available in cap space before free agency.

Another option the Jaguars could explore is doing a tag and trade with Jawaan Taylor. That kind of situation can get sticky though and burn bridges, so it may be for the better to let Taylor walk if you don't intend to keep him.

Free Agency($27.7M Cap Space Available Before)

Evan Engram - $3M in 2023, $27M/3 years including $6M signing bonus

Dawuane Smoot - $2.5M in 2023, $10M/2 years including $3M signing bonus Arden Key - $2.5M in 2023, $8M/2 years including with $3M signing bonus

Andrew Wingard - $2M in 2023, $5M/2 years including $2M signing bonus

JaMycal Hasty - $1M in 2023 Tre Herndon - $1M in 2023

Riley Patterson - $870k in 2023

Isaac Seumalo - $4.5M in 2023, $32M/3 years including $9M signing bonus

Parris Campbell - $2M in 2023, $7M/2 years including $2M signing bonus

The Jaguars had a special team in 2022, and they must try to keep most of that core together. If players are willing to take team friendly deals, I believe they could get the majority of them back. Two players that I wouldn’t expect to return that played in starting roles are Jawaan Taylor and Marvin Jones. Taylor was the Jaguars best offensive lineman, but there’s a bounty of issues with retaining him. Not only does it push the cap to the extreme and prevent other players from resigning, but it prevents Walker Little from starting at tackle.

In regards to Marvin Jones, he would be better suited going to another team with receiver needs. He would net a larger salary with another team and a featured role whereas he would be a depth receiver in Jacksonville. Retaining him ultimately doesn’t do a lot for either side so it would be best to let him walk.

For each of the players that were resigned, I offered deals that were identical to the ones last signed when considering average salary per year. I do believe that Evan Engram would take a team-friendly deal to stay with Jacksonville, so I offered him $27M/3 years. For Smoot and Key, retaining both of them gives the Jaguars reliable pass rushers that can play in a rotational role. Having both of them on the field should help the pass rush reach its potential next season.

I also decided to retain some other free agents that played a smaller role on the team. Andrew Wingard may be a backup safety, but he’s a clear voice in the locker room and has to stay in Jacksonville. JaMycal Hasty was very effective as a change-of-pace back and Herndon performed well for a backup cornerback being thrown into the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Riley Patterson has been nearly lights out at kicker since the bye week. All of these players have earned future roles with the Jaguars.

Every team is going to look to add some free agents whether big or small, so this is no different. The Jaguars need to improve their interior offensive line and would benefit from adding a speed threat at receiver. Isaac Seumalo and Parris Campbell provide those answers. Seumalo is a heavily underrated guard for the Philadelphia Eagles that was brought in under Doug Pederson’s regime. The two are already well acquainted, so this could be a potential pairing if he hits free agency.

While Parris Campbell hasn’t been a high-volume receiver, he’s still off of his best season and one of the fastest receivers in the NFL. Bringing him in as a rotational player could give the Jaguars someone who can stretch the field. That would ultimately complete the receiver position. After all of these moves, the Jaguars are left with just enough money for the draft at $8M in cap space.

2023 NFL Draft($8.0M Cap Space Available Before)

24. Nolan Smith - EDGE - $2.6M in 2023 56. Luke Musgrave - TE - $1.2M in 2023

88. Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson - CB - $1M in 2023

98. Kenny McIntosh - RB - $900k in 2023

166. Keion White - EDGE - $700k in 2023

201. Trey Palmer - WR - $700k in 2023

227. Clayton Tune - QB - $700k in 2023

Well, here’s a big conversation to have. With Josh Allen and Travon Walker already on the roster, does it make sense to invest another high pick into a pass rusher? My answer is that you might have to. Ideally, you don’t want to have this much capital tied up into one position without huge results, but the truth is that the Jaguars aren’t an elite pass rushing team. If they want to be the best team in the league, they’ll need to rectify this problem.

Nolan Smith comes with some injury concerns, but he was considered a potential Top 10 pick. Smith has been an emotional leader for the Georgia Bulldogs and would fit in perfectly with a team that’s full of great character. On the football field though, Smith has all the potential to become a great pass rusher. He may take time to develop for the Jaguars, but he’s viewed in a very similar light to Haasan Reddick, a player who’s coming off his third-straight double-digit sack season with 16 on the year.

With the rest of these picks, I took some swings at the clear deficiencies on the Jaguars roster. Jacksonville needs to add a balanced tight end to their roster, so adding a player like Musgrave gives them someone they can develop behind Engram. In the third round, adding Hodges-Tomlinson gives the team a good nickel corner that fits the physicality of the Jaguars and could even move outside if they’re in a pinch.

The last notable picks I made were Kenny McIntosh and Keion White. Both of these players were obtained by trading the next two picks Jacksonville had. Kenny McIntosh would be a dream fit for Doug Pederson and give this team a fantastic receiving threat out of the backfield. Much like Parris Campbell, it adds another element that’s missing on the Jaguars offense. Keion White would undoubtedly be a depth player early on, but he has the potential to develop into a key piece on the Jaguars defense. That’s what you’re gonna look for that late in the draft. After all of these additions, the Jaguars would sit less than $1M below the salary cap.

Jaguars Starting Roster

Offense:

QB - Trevor Lawrence RB - Travis Etienne, Kenny McIntosh(R), JaMycal Hasty

WR - Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Parris Campbell, Jamal Agnew

TE - Evan Engram, Luke Musgrave(R)

LT - Cam Robinson

LG - Isaac Seumalo

C - Luke Fortner

RG - Brandon Scherff

RT - Walker Little

Defense:

NT - DaVon Hamilton

DE - Dawuane Smoot, Arden Key, Folorunso Fatukasi OLB - Josh Allen, Travon Walker, Nolan Smith(R)

LB - Foye Oluokun, Devin Lloyd, Chad Muma

CB - Tyson Campbell, Darious Williams

SLOT - Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson(R)

FS - Andre Cisco

SS - Rayshawn Jenkins

Special Teams:

K - Riley Patterson

P - Logan Cooke

LS - Ross Matiscik

KR - Jamal Agnew

PR - Jamal Agnew

More moves could be made to increase how much cap is available. They could simply kick some cap to later in a contract or two to free up space. Ultimately, the biggest losses are Jawaan Taylor, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Marvin Jones. Jawaan Taylor was arguably the best offensive linemen for this team in 2022, but there’s not enough cap space to bring him back especially with Walker Little in the wings. Roy Robertson-Harris simply has too large of a contract to renegotiate and Marvin Jones will likely move on somewhere else. Honestly, money on a Marvin Jones extension is better spent on another role player unless he wants to take a huge paycut.

The upgrades to the Jaguars roster far outweigh the losses in my opinion. Walker Little mitigates the biggest hit to the roster by taking over for Jawaan Taylor On the offense, the Jaguars have added a talented receiving back to the running back room with Kenny McIntosh, a speed threat at receiver in Parris Campbell, and a balanced tight end with lots of potential in Luke Musgrave. If he works out, Doug Pederson could implement a two tight-end system. Isaac Seumalo also steps in as a talented starter at left guard and fills the biggest weakness on the offensive line. He was also drafted by Doug Pederson years back, so the two already have a connection.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jaguars add a talented pass rusher in Nolan Smith. The group of players they already had couldn’t get it done this year, and even though they’ll likely be much improved in 2023, adding another high-profile pass rusher is a necessary move. Keion White would also give the Jaguars a player to develop and potentially add to the mix in the long run. The only change to the secondary is adding Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson at nickel corner. His play mentality fits in perfectly with Jacksonville(big hits and big plays) and fills the hole at the position while having versatility to play outside when needed.

This roster build pushes the cap to its absolute limit, but it manages to bring an answer to every pressing issue the Jaguars face in a very difficult situation. This still allows the Jaguars room to maneuver the cap in the future as well. They would be projected at $4M in cap space entering 2024 with their notable free agents including Josh Allen, Calvin Ridley, and DaVon Hamilton. Cam Robinson, Brandon Scherff, and Folorunso Fatukasi would be potential cap casualties that would provide plenty of room to negotiate contracts. It’s likely that at least one of those players would be considered expendable that season at their salary.

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